This figures to be an exciting game between two explosive offenses. But sometimes these premium primetime matchups don’t live up to all the hype, which is why my props aren’t too aggressive.
The sportsbooks project superstar WR’s Ceedee Lamb and Amon-Ra St. Brown to continue their great play and their odds reflect it. Needing over 80 yards and 5 receptions for a minimal payout isn’t worth it to me so I’m staying away from those guys.
I’m staying away from the QB’s too mostly for those same reasons. Let’s take a look at tonight’s picks:
RB Jahmyr Gibbs +3 Receptions -235
The Cowboys are averaging 5 catches allowed to opposing RB’s over last 5 weeks.
TE Sam LaPorta +4 Receptions -275
Dallas has allowed 4 or more receptions to opposing TE’s in 8 out of the last 9 games.
RB Tony Pollard +40 Rushing Yards -290
Detroit has allowed the 4th most rushing yards per game on the road this year and the 5th most in the last 3 games.
Jake Ferguson +40 Receiving Yards -192
The Lions have allowed the 11th most receiving yards against opposing TE’s this year.
The new Big 3 in Miami broke out in a big way on Sunday with Tua Tagovailoa throwing for 469 yards and 6 touchdowns, Tyreek Hill catching 11 passes for 190 yards and two touchdowns, and Jaylen Waddle going for 11 and 171 with two touchdowns of his own.
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Lions receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown became the first player in NFL history to have 6 straight games of 8 or more receptions and a touchdown when he torched the Commanders for 9 catches for 116 yards with two touchdowns on Sunday. He also tacked on two runs for an additional 68 yards.
Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes followed up his 360 yard 5 touchdown masterpiece against the Cardinals in Week 1 with 235 yards and 2 touchdowns in the Thursday night win over the Chargers. With the departure of Tyreek Hill, any pass catcher not named Travis Kelce should stay on your bench as Mahomes continues to spread the targets around.
Buccaneers
Tampa Bay was already without receivers Chris Godwin and Julio Jones ahead of Sunday’s win over the Saints and will now be without Mike Evans in Week 3 after his suspension for the brawl against New Orleans. The Bucs added some insurance by signing free agent wide receiver Cole Beasley to their practice squad today.
Drops
Cole Kmet – TE Bears
0 catches on 2 targets for the season
Kadarius Toney – WR Giants
2 catches for 23 yards for the season
Skyy Moore – WR Chiefs
1 catch for 30 yards in a crowded KC receiver group
Adds
Evan Engram – TE Jaguars
11 catches through 2 weeks
Tyler Higbee – TE Rams
110 yards for 6th most at TE
Brian Robinson – RB Commanders
Eligible to return Week 5
Sell High
Michael Thomas – WR Saints
Can he keep up the pace? I don’t think so
David Montgomery – RB Bears
Bears offense looks dreadful and backup Khalil Herbert is a threat for carries
James Robinson – RB Jaguars
Solid start to the season but Etienne should get more touches as the season goes on
Buy Low
Kyle Pitts – TE Falcons
Way too talented to continue being ignored, look for ATL him more involved
Brandon Aiyuk – WR 49er’s
Jimmy Garoppolo’s return bodes well for Aiyuk
Travis Etienne Jr. – RB Jaguars
Effective when he gets touches and will continue to get more involved
StraightSports 