The Detroit Lions and Amon-Ra St. Brown broke out in a big way last year, look for them to keep the momentum going.
Saquon Barkley’s move to Philadelphia means more trips to the red zone, but how many rushing touchdowns will Jalen Hurts sneak?
Worst Picks
The odds of Kyren Williams repeating the efficiency he showed last year are low, especially after the Rams drafted Blake Corum in the 3rd round.
There’s so much to love about Justin Jefferson, but will J.J. McCarthy be able to get him the ball when and where he needs?
Round 2
Best Picks
Jahmyr Gibbs is one of the most electric runners in the league already. If offseason rumors are true and he’s refined his route running, look out.
Even though Derrick Henry may be losing a step, he can still be lethal in this Ravens offense. Double-digit rushing touchdowns incoming.
Worst Picks
The talent is evident with Puca Nacua, but he did a lot of his damage with Cooper Kupp on the bench. A healthier Kupp demanding more targets this season could hurt Nacua’s stock.
Davante Adams finished last season with 6 less touchdown and 372 less receiving yards than he did the year before. Can he reverse the trend and justify a 2nd round pick?
Round 3
Best Picks
Josh Allen has been the highest scoring QB in fantasy football 3 times in the last 4 years. Despite losing his top receivers this offseason, he’s still one of the best options at the position.
Marvin Harrison Jr. finds himself in an ideal situation in Arizona. The team moved on from Marquise Brown and Rondale Moore in the offseason.
Worst Picks
Rachaad White had a surprisingly strong season with the Buccaneers last year despite averaging 3.6 yards per carry. Can he repeat this year?
Diminishing numbers in his 11th year in the league last season is a red flag for Travis Kelce.
Round 4
Best Picks
Once OC Joe Brady took over in Buffalo last year, James Cook saw an uptick in carries and proved that he could be their featured back.
C.J. Stroud was absolutely amazing in his rookie season, but Lamar Jackson has been performing at an elite level for a long time. This early in the draft consistency is more important than upside.
Worst Picks
De’Von Achane burst onto the scene last season. His eye-popping speed led to some incredible stat lines, but he also spent significant time on the IR. Will he stay healthy this year?
Nico Collins was amazing last season but newcomer Stefon Diggs could take away significant targets.
Round 5
Best Picks
Teammates Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel are neck and neck in projections, but Aiyuk seems the safer pick due to Deebo’s playstyle and injury history.
Kyler Murray and Trey McBride really found their rhythm towards the end of last season.
Worst Picks
No disrespect to Deebo Samuel, but as referenced earlier, his playstyle leads to questions about his durability.
A closer look at Kenneth Walker III’s metrics from last season are a cause for concern. ’23 2nd round pick Zach Charbonnet is also a looming threat for more carries.
Round 6
Best Picks
Joe Burrow’s stock has taken a hit after he missed 7 games last season. If he stays healthy he is one of the top options at his position.
Former Packer Aaron Jones averaged 4.6 yard per carry last season showing he’s still got it.
Worst Picks
Dolphins receiver Jaylen Waddle only had 4 receiving touchdowns last season and signed an extension this offseason making him one of the top-5 highest paid receivers in the league. Will the financial security make him complacent?
DJ Moore and Justin Fields showed amazing chemistry last season. The addition of Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze on top of the fact that rookie QB Caleb Williams is taking over makes it tough to project how Moore will fare. Buyer beware.
Round 7
Best Picks
Malik Nabers is far and away the best receiver on the Giants. Rookie receivers have had great success in the NFL recently, expect Nabers to continue the trend.
Dalton Kincaid could very well be Josh Allen’s go-to guy this year. Look for a spike in production.
Worst Picks
Last season was a major step back for Rhamondre Stevenson, averaging a full yard per carry less than the year before.
Former Jaguar Calvin Ridley had the worst catch rate among the top 40 targeted receivers last season at 55.9%. His move to Tennessee doesn’t exactly inspire confidence.
Round 8
Best Picks
His maturity may be a question mark but George Pickens’ talent is undeniable. The departures of Kenny Pickett and Diontae Johnson in the offseason bode well for his progression.
Amari Cooper is as consistent as they come and constantly overlooked. He’s a fringe WR2.
Worst Picks
If Kyle Pitts doesn’t break out with Kirk Cousins as his quarterback then just may never do it.
Touchdown magnet Mike Evans left only 2 receiving touchdowns for teammate Chris Godwin last season. Is there enough opportunity in Tampa Bay for both receivers to thrive?
Round 9
Best Picks
Najee Harris is a better running back than he gets credit for. The additions of Arthur Smith and Russell Wilson will help him take the next step.
Zamir White should have plenty of opportunity to establish himself as the lead guy in Las Vegas.
Worst Picks
Father time is undefeated as DeAndre Hopkins enters his 12th season in the NFL.
A possible suspension looms for Rashee Rice stemming from an arrest in March.
Round 10
Best Picks
The Commanders taking Jayden Daniels at #2 overall was the best thing to happen to Terry McLaurin in his career so far.
Zack Moss was surprisingly effective in relief of Jonathan Taylor last year in Indianapolis. He steps into a featured role in Cincinnati with the departure of Joe Mixon.
Worst Picks
Things couldn’t have gone much worse for #1 overall pick Bryce Young in Carolina last year. The addition of Diontae Johnson should help, but there’s still a long way to go.
There are serious concerns about how Nick Chubb will look returning from his catastrophic knee injury.
Round 11
Best Picks
Trevor Lawrence and Christian Kirk have shown amazing chemistry together, Kirk is the top option in Jacksonville.
If you decided to wait on taking a QB, Aaron Rodgers is a sneaky, high-upside pick here.
Worst Picks
Jordan Addison caught a surprising 10 touchdowns in his rookie year last season. A lot of those came when Justin Jefferson was on the bench injured. Throw in a rookie quarterback this year and regression seems imminent.
After missing 11 games in his first two seasons, boom or bust receiver Christian Watson finds himself in a crowded receivers room in Green Bay.
Round 12
Best Picks
Ladd McConkey has an opportunity to establish himself as WR1 in LA.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba went from a crowded receiver room at OSU to a similar situation with the Seahawks. Will he overtake Tyler Lockett as WR2 in Seattle this year?
Worst Picks
It’s easy to fall in love with Xavier Worthy’s record-setting speed, but he has a lot to prove.
Tyler Lockett had his worst season statistically since ’17. JSN’s continued emergence is cause for concern.
Round 13
Best Picks
As mentioned earlier, there are serious concerns about Nick Chubb’s return from injury. Jerome Ford held his own in relief last year and could have an extended run as the starter depending on how Chubb progresses.
The Steelers defense features the best edge rushing duo in the league. The offseason addition of Patrick Queen and a healthy Minkah Fitzpatrick has them stout on all levels.
Worst Picks
Gus Edwards and JK Dobbinsboth went from Baltimore to LA in the off-season, but the question of who gets more carries remains.
Jim Harbaugh has been busy since joining the Chargers. Justin Herbert has plenty of talent, but he also lost his top two receivers in the off-season.
Round 14
Best Picks
It’s a make or break year for the 12th overall pick in ‘22. Jameson Williams is set to take the next step.
Kyren William’s grip on the starting role may not be as tight as many think. Blake Corum is worth a roster spot this late.
Worst Picks
As mentioned earlier, the carry distribution between Gus Edwards and JK Dobbins remains a question.
Pat Freiermuth’s progression took a significant step back last year. Maybe the change at quarterback will get him back on track.
Round 15
Best Picks
Bengals running back Chase Brown flashed in his limited opportunities last year. Joe Mixon’s departure opens the door for more carries.
Is a change of scenery what was needed for former first round pick Jerry Jeudy to unlock his potential?
Worst Picks
Tyler Allgeier received a head-scratching amount of carries in comparison to teammate Bijan Robinson under coach Arthur Smith. Expect major regression with Raheem Morris in town.
Darnell Mooney hasn’t been relevant in fantasy football since ’21. Will his offseason move to Atlanta get him back on track?
Round 16
Best Picks
There is still hope that Trevor Lawrence can justify the Jaguars taking him #1 overall in ’21.
The Eagles defense is too talented to not be impactful in fantasy football.
Worst Picks
This is likely Deshaun Watson’s last opportunity in Cleveland to show that he’s still the same player he was in Houston.
Gabe Davis was a bit of a disappointment in Buffalo after he exploded for 201 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns in the Divisional Round against the Chiefs in ’21. Without Josh Allen as his quarterback it’s hard to envision things changing.
Both teams are in must win positions and Pittman is Minshew’s go-to guy. He’s averaging over 70+ yards per game and had less than 60+ yards in a game only three times this season.
Jonathan Taylor 50+ Rushing Yards -270
19+ carries in each of his last 5 games played and averaging 4 YPC this season projecting for 76 rushing yards.
C.J. Stroud 2+ Passing Touchdowns-111
He hasn’t thrown for two or more TD’s since week 12 against the Jaguars, but with an opportunity to get into the playoffs and further his OROY campaign I’m betting he gets it done.
Dalton Schultz 25+ Receiving Yards -420
Schultz has shown that he can go missing in action at times this year, registering less than 10+ receiving yards in a game 4 times. However, that all happened when Tank Dell was still on the field demanding targets. Without Dell, and in a must-win scenario, it all projects for a strong showing from Schultz.
The NFL regular season comes to an end next week and most fantasy football leagues ended on Sunday. Let’s take a minute to review and grab some takeaways for next year.
1st Round Busts
Whether it was injuries or guys not living up to their draft stock, there were more misses than hits in the 1st round this year. Unless you took CMC #1 overall, or Tyreek Hill, pretty much everyone else underperformed.
Austin Ekeler was probably the worst pick since he stayed relatively healthy and probably stayed in your starting lineup only to put up replacement level numbers each week.
Bijan Robinson was solid at times, but his sporadic usage really limited him. Nick Chubb was lost for the season in Week 2, Justin Jefferson missed 7 weeks, and then guys like Ja’Marr Chase, Stefon Diggs, Travis Kelce, and Cooper Kupp underperformed.
Rookie Wide Receivers
Puka Nacua, Zay Flowers, Jordan Addison, Rashee Rice, Tank Dell, and Jayden Reed all burst onto the scene this year. The beauty of it is that most of them didn’t cost much if any draft capital and made a huge difference for your team if you added one.
Waiver-Wire Running Backs
What do Kyren Williams, De’Von Achane, Jerome Ford, Gus Edwards, and Jaylen Warren have in common? They’re all RB1’s that likely went undrafted in your league.
RB’s like Raheem Mostert, Rachaad White, and Isiah Pacheco also overperformed this year; which almost makes you think about waiting to draft running backs later in the draft next year.
Back Up Quarterbacks
7 different QB’s were lost to season-ending injuries this year and they were all pretty much QB1’s: Aaron Rodgers, Anthony Richardson, Kirk Cousins, Daniel Jones, Deshaun Watson, Joe Burrow, and Justin Herbert.
There were a few surprises like Brock Purdy, Jordan Love, C.J. Stroud, and Sam Howell, but the quarterback position was pretty predictable this year in fantasy.
Tight Ends
If you invested early, you were probably rewarded this year. Guys like Mark Andrews (pre-injury), T.J. Hockenson, George Kittle, and Travis Kelce all finished as TE1’s. Sure Kelce was a 1st round pick, but he’ll still finish as one of the best TE’s this year.
There were also some major surprises like Sam LaPorta, Trey McBride, Jake Ferguson, and David Njoku. They’re all also relatively young, representing a wave of exciting new talent at the position.
Takeaways
Looking back at some of the major events this year, I’m definitely adjusting my draft strategy next year:
Target young WR’s early
Likely wait until the 2nd or 3rd round to take a RB
Probably going to wait on QB’s too since the disparity this year wasn’t too crazy.
Value pick here. A week off and a good matchup for Levis has me optimistic.
Running Backs
Rachaad White vs. Saints – $7,900
White has scored double-digit fantasy points in 10 straight games and the Saints are 25th in the league in rushing defense.
James Cook vs. Patriots – $7,600
Despite a juicy matchup, Cook is affordable, likely because his poor performance last week. New OC Joe Brady has done wonders for the dynamic young RB.
Zamir White @ Colts – $6,100
Jacobs is currently doubtful for the game and White is coming off a 145 yard rushing game.
Wide Receivers
Stefon Diggs vs. Patriots – $7,600
In 8 career games against New England he has 7 TD’s and he has to bust out of this slump at some point.
Brandon Aiyuk @ Commanders – $7,500
Washington is 31st in passing defense and Purdy will be looking to make everyone forget about last week.
Zay Flowers vs. Dolphins – $6,300
He’s scored at least 17 fantasy points in 3 out of his last 4 games and is Lamar’s #1 option.
Tight Ends
Trey McBride @ Eagles – $6,800
Philadelphia is 27th in passing defense and McBride’s target share is massive.
Dalton Schultz vs. Titans – $6,200
11 targets last week and Stroud is back.
Isaiah Likely vs. Dolphins – $6,000
Despite a subpar matchup, he’s been a major factor in the Ravens offense the past three weeks.
Defense
Bills vs. Patriots – $4,900
The second priciest defense this week but the difference between the others is minimal. Plus you know they’ll be going all out for a playoff spot in front of their home crowd.
Colts vs. Raiders – $4,000
Las Vegas is the 29th ranked offense and the Colts had strung together some nice games before last week’s loss to Atlanta.
Raiders @ Colts – $3,900
4 defensive touchdowns in the past two weeks. Interim coach Antonio Pierce has this team inspired.
This figures to be an exciting game between two explosive offenses. But sometimes these premium primetime matchups don’t live up to all the hype, which is why my props aren’t too aggressive.
The sportsbooks project superstar WR’s Ceedee Lamb and Amon-Ra St. Brown to continue their great play and their odds reflect it. Needing over 80 yards and 5 receptions for a minimal payout isn’t worth it to me so I’m staying away from those guys.
I’m staying away from the QB’s too mostly for those same reasons. Let’s take a look at tonight’s picks:
RB Jahmyr Gibbs +3 Receptions -235
The Cowboys are averaging 5 catches allowed to opposing RB’s over last 5 weeks.
TE Sam LaPorta +4 Receptions -275
Dallas has allowed 4 or more receptions to opposing TE’s in 8 out of the last 9 games.
RB Tony Pollard +40 Rushing Yards -290
Detroit has allowed the 4th most rushing yards per game on the road this year and the 5th most in the last 3 games.
Jake Ferguson +40 Receiving Yards -192
The Lions have allowed the 11th most receiving yards against opposing TE’s this year.
The Browns host the Jets tonight and Joe Flacco will really look to make New York regret not reaching out to him earlier this season when Aaron Rodgers went down.
Flacco has been an absolute savior for the Browns, going 3-1 in his 4 starts while filling in for the injured Deshaun Watson. The 38 year-old has been arguably one of the best quarterbacks in the entire league during that stretch, averaging 326 yards per game with 10 passing touchdowns.
Meanwhile, the Jets have gone from Zach Wilson, to Tim Boyle, back to Zach Wilson, and now put their faith in Trevor Siemian against the vaunted Browns defense.
The Browns are -7.5 point favorites tonight at home so let’s take a look at some promising player props.
Jets
Breece Hall 3+ Receptions
Currently at -550 on FanDuel, this is actually a conservative projection. As the primary running back, Hall has averaged 5.7 receptions in his last 10 games. I imagine Siemian will be under pressure all game from Myles Garrett and company and will look to get the ball out quickly and around the line of scrimmage. That plays perfectly for how the Jets have been utilizing Hall.
Garrett Wilson 40+ Yards Receiving
Currently at -220 on FanDuel. Garrett Wilson is an incredibly talented receiver but has no one to deliver him the ball on time and in space. Wilson has gone over the 40 yard mark in 4 out of his last 5 games and is the #1 option to stretch the field for New York.
Browns
Joe Flacco 225+ Passing Yards
Currently at -154 on FanDuel. In Flacco’s 1st start for Cleveland in Week 13 he threw for 254 yards in a loss against the Rams. He’s thrown for over 300 yards in the last 3 games after that with over 40 attempts in each. The Jets secondary is incredibly talented, but I predict that Flacco puts up solid yardage again due to sheer volume.
David Njoku 4+ Receptions
Currently at -490 on FanDuel. Flacco’s arrival has really unlocked tight end David Njoku’s potential. In his last 3 games, Njoku is averaging 80 yards and 7 receptions per game with 4 touchdowns.
What a way to start the week! 84 points scored in a battle of back up QB’s, raise your hand if you saw that coming. Now put your hand down because we all know you’re lying.
Is Austin Ekeler near the end or does he just need a change of scenery?
Zamir White filled in admirably for the injured Josh Jacobs.
Vikings vs. Bengals
And down goes Chase. Will the clock strike midnight on Jake Browning’s Cinderella story without his dynamic WR?
Chase Brown is the future at RB in Cinci, I’m avoiding Mixon next year unless he’s moved.
Ty Chandler had a strong game filling in for the injured Alexander Mattison.
Steelers vs. Colts
The Mitchell Trubisky experience is over in Pittsburgh, how will Mason Rudolph fare? Not much better if you ask me, but at least his name is more festive.
What will George Pickens’ value be next season? He burned me this year so I’m staying away.
Trey Sermon and Tyler Goodson stepped up big time for the injured Zack Moss.
Lions vs. Broncos
Jahmyr Gibbs is electric. He reminds me of prime Kamara. Detroit’s offense is young and dangerous.
Goff rebounded in a big way from last week with 5 touchdown passes.
Jerry Jeudy and Javonte Williams have been major disappointments this year.
Bears vs. Browns
Chicago’s backfield is a mess, avoid at all costs
Njoku is one of the hottest players in the league right now.
The Browns defense played great again and face a Texans team that may be without Stroud this week.
Buccaneers vs. Packers
This will be a great trivia question, who is the only visiting QB to have a perfect passer rating at Lambeau Field? Baker Mayfield!
Mike Evans rebounded nicely and Godwin dominated.
Jordan Love has what it takes to be a starter in the NFL.
Texans vs. Titans
Derrick Henry laid an absolute egg in the fantasy playoffs. Will a change of scenery breath some life into him or is there just too much tread on the tires?
Devin Singletary had 26 carries to Dameon Pierce’s 1. WYD DeMeco!?
In the midst of a playoff push, the Texans offense has lost Tank Dell, Nico Collins, and C.J. Stroud. Ouch.
Dolphins vs. Jets
Jaylen Waddle finally got to shine with Tyreek missing his first game this year.
Zach Wilson got benched, again. Stay home Rodgers, it’s a mess.
I still like Breece Hall’s talent. I’m thinking I can draft him at a discount next year.
Chiefs vs. Patriots
Rashee Rice is officially a WR1.
Patrick Mahomes threw for over 300 yards, it’s about time.
Zappe was unable to build off his prime time win over the Steelers last week.
Giants vs. Saints
Saquan Barkley might have very well lost you your playoff matchup.
The Giants sure could use a dynamic receiver.
No Chris Olave and Taysom Hill does nothing.
Falcons vs. Panthers
Arthur Smith is the bane of my existence. #FREEBIJAN
The Panthers really need to get Bryce some weapons.
16 total points. Who took the under?
Commanders vs. Rams
Gunslinger Sam Howell got benched.
Scary Terry lived up to his name with 141 and a TD.
Kyren and Cooper got theirs again. Is Kyren a top 3 pick next year?
49ers vs. Cardinals
Deebo Samuel is red hot.
3 more TD’s from CMC, talk about a league-winner.
I’m targeting Trey McBride next year, he’s been so consistent.
Cowboys vs. Bills
Well, looks like Dak’s MVP campaign is over. What an embarrassment for Dallas.
James Cook’s huge day would not have been possible if the Bills didn’t fire Ken Dorsey.
I think there’s beef between Josh and Diggs. I see a trade on the horizon.
Jaguars vs. Ravens
It’s between Lamar and Purdy for MVP at this point. Lamar continued his impressive and consistent fantasy streak.
Travis Etienne has really fallen off in the second half of the season.
Isaiah Likely has filled in admirably for the injured Mark Andrews.
Eagles vs Seahawks
Definitely not the flu game Philly was hoping for. 3 straight losses for the birds.
Last second substitution Drew Lock led the Seahawks on a game-winning drive.
Metcalf, Lockett, and JSN are the leagues best trio if you ask me.
Foresight: Don’t wait until the week of to add players with good matchups, particularly team defenses. Look at matchups a week or two in advance and add those players before someone else does.
Don’t get cute: Stick with the studs that have gotten you to this point regardless of matchups. You’ll be kicking yourself all off-season if you lose because you started someone off the waivers rather than your best guys.
Block Opponents: It may seem cutthroat, but it’s part of the game. If your opponent loses a player, don’t be afraid to add the best replacement option to your bench so they can’t play them.
Start/Sit Determinations: What do you need that week? Are you going up against a juggernaut and need a miracle? Start the player with the higher ceiling. Is it gonna be a close matchup where you need all the points you can get? Start the player with the higher floor.
Flex Spot: If your player misses practice that week and has an injury designation plug them into your flex so you have more position flexibility with your replacement if they can’t play.
The Arizona Cardinals enter their week 9 matchup against the Cleveland Browns riding a 5-game losing streak and down to their 3rd string quarterback, Clayton Tune, after trading Josh Dobbs to the Minnesota Vikings on Tuesday.
Dobbs will now be faced with the challenge of learning his 3rd offense this season after being traded from the Browns to the Cardinals just before the season started.
With Kyler Murray rumored to return from his ACL injury any week now, Arizona decided Dobbs was expendable and traded him to Minnesota for a 6th round pick.
Looking back at the initial trade between the Browns and Cardinals after 8 weeks, an argument can be made that it was a loss for both teams.
Dobbs led the Cardinals to a 1-7 record while averaging just under 200 yards a game with a QBR of 46.6, good for 19th in the league. Those numbers leave a lot to be desired, but the Browns sure could have used that production.
Filling in for an injured Deshaun Watson, rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson had a disastrous debut in Week 4 when he was thrust into action against a vaunted Ravens defense. The next week he was replaced by PJ Walker who has averaged 206 yards per game with a QBR of 25.3 in his 3 starts with the team.
How might things have gone for Cleveland if they held onto Dobbs? No one really knows but looking at his QBR compared to Thompson-Robinson’s and Walker’s, I imagine the Browns might have won a few more games.
Cleveland enjoys a measly 169 days of sunshine compared to 299 days a year in Phoenix. Cleveland was once a proud, blue collar steel town but is now struggling with a declining population and scarcity of job opportunities. Maricopa, representative of the whole city of Phoenix, is one of the fastest growing cities in the country.
But when it comes to the NFL, both teams and cities share the heartbreak and misery that comes along with years of losing. Both teams head into Week 9 in similar predicaments, waiting for their franchise quarterbacks to return from injury and prove that they are deserving of their massive contracts. Until then, it’s a battle of the 3rd string quarterbacks in Cleveland on Sunday.
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