The Detroit Lions and Amon-Ra St. Brown broke out in a big way last year, look for them to keep the momentum going.
Saquon Barkley’s move to Philadelphia means more trips to the red zone, but how many rushing touchdowns will Jalen Hurts sneak?
Worst Picks
The odds of Kyren Williams repeating the efficiency he showed last year are low, especially after the Rams drafted Blake Corum in the 3rd round.
There’s so much to love about Justin Jefferson, but will J.J. McCarthy be able to get him the ball when and where he needs?
Round 2
Best Picks
Jahmyr Gibbs is one of the most electric runners in the league already. If offseason rumors are true and he’s refined his route running, look out.
Even though Derrick Henry may be losing a step, he can still be lethal in this Ravens offense. Double-digit rushing touchdowns incoming.
Worst Picks
The talent is evident with Puca Nacua, but he did a lot of his damage with Cooper Kupp on the bench. A healthier Kupp demanding more targets this season could hurt Nacua’s stock.
Davante Adams finished last season with 6 less touchdown and 372 less receiving yards than he did the year before. Can he reverse the trend and justify a 2nd round pick?
Round 3
Best Picks
Josh Allen has been the highest scoring QB in fantasy football 3 times in the last 4 years. Despite losing his top receivers this offseason, he’s still one of the best options at the position.
Marvin Harrison Jr. finds himself in an ideal situation in Arizona. The team moved on from Marquise Brown and Rondale Moore in the offseason.
Worst Picks
Rachaad White had a surprisingly strong season with the Buccaneers last year despite averaging 3.6 yards per carry. Can he repeat this year?
Diminishing numbers in his 11th year in the league last season is a red flag for Travis Kelce.
Round 4
Best Picks
Once OC Joe Brady took over in Buffalo last year, James Cook saw an uptick in carries and proved that he could be their featured back.
C.J. Stroud was absolutely amazing in his rookie season, but Lamar Jackson has been performing at an elite level for a long time. This early in the draft consistency is more important than upside.
Worst Picks
De’Von Achane burst onto the scene last season. His eye-popping speed led to some incredible stat lines, but he also spent significant time on the IR. Will he stay healthy this year?
Nico Collins was amazing last season but newcomer Stefon Diggs could take away significant targets.
Round 5
Best Picks
Teammates Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel are neck and neck in projections, but Aiyuk seems the safer pick due to Deebo’s playstyle and injury history.
Kyler Murray and Trey McBride really found their rhythm towards the end of last season.
Worst Picks
No disrespect to Deebo Samuel, but as referenced earlier, his playstyle leads to questions about his durability.
A closer look at Kenneth Walker III’s metrics from last season are a cause for concern. ’23 2nd round pick Zach Charbonnet is also a looming threat for more carries.
Round 6
Best Picks
Joe Burrow’s stock has taken a hit after he missed 7 games last season. If he stays healthy he is one of the top options at his position.
Former Packer Aaron Jones averaged 4.6 yard per carry last season showing he’s still got it.
Worst Picks
Dolphins receiver Jaylen Waddle only had 4 receiving touchdowns last season and signed an extension this offseason making him one of the top-5 highest paid receivers in the league. Will the financial security make him complacent?
DJ Moore and Justin Fields showed amazing chemistry last season. The addition of Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze on top of the fact that rookie QB Caleb Williams is taking over makes it tough to project how Moore will fare. Buyer beware.
Round 7
Best Picks
Malik Nabers is far and away the best receiver on the Giants. Rookie receivers have had great success in the NFL recently, expect Nabers to continue the trend.
Dalton Kincaid could very well be Josh Allen’s go-to guy this year. Look for a spike in production.
Worst Picks
Last season was a major step back for Rhamondre Stevenson, averaging a full yard per carry less than the year before.
Former Jaguar Calvin Ridley had the worst catch rate among the top 40 targeted receivers last season at 55.9%. His move to Tennessee doesn’t exactly inspire confidence.
Round 8
Best Picks
His maturity may be a question mark but George Pickens’ talent is undeniable. The departures of Kenny Pickett and Diontae Johnson in the offseason bode well for his progression.
Amari Cooper is as consistent as they come and constantly overlooked. He’s a fringe WR2.
Worst Picks
If Kyle Pitts doesn’t break out with Kirk Cousins as his quarterback then just may never do it.
Touchdown magnet Mike Evans left only 2 receiving touchdowns for teammate Chris Godwin last season. Is there enough opportunity in Tampa Bay for both receivers to thrive?
Round 9
Best Picks
Najee Harris is a better running back than he gets credit for. The additions of Arthur Smith and Russell Wilson will help him take the next step.
Zamir White should have plenty of opportunity to establish himself as the lead guy in Las Vegas.
Worst Picks
Father time is undefeated as DeAndre Hopkins enters his 12th season in the NFL.
A possible suspension looms for Rashee Rice stemming from an arrest in March.
Round 10
Best Picks
The Commanders taking Jayden Daniels at #2 overall was the best thing to happen to Terry McLaurin in his career so far.
Zack Moss was surprisingly effective in relief of Jonathan Taylor last year in Indianapolis. He steps into a featured role in Cincinnati with the departure of Joe Mixon.
Worst Picks
Things couldn’t have gone much worse for #1 overall pick Bryce Young in Carolina last year. The addition of Diontae Johnson should help, but there’s still a long way to go.
There are serious concerns about how Nick Chubb will look returning from his catastrophic knee injury.
Round 11
Best Picks
Trevor Lawrence and Christian Kirk have shown amazing chemistry together, Kirk is the top option in Jacksonville.
If you decided to wait on taking a QB, Aaron Rodgers is a sneaky, high-upside pick here.
Worst Picks
Jordan Addison caught a surprising 10 touchdowns in his rookie year last season. A lot of those came when Justin Jefferson was on the bench injured. Throw in a rookie quarterback this year and regression seems imminent.
After missing 11 games in his first two seasons, boom or bust receiver Christian Watson finds himself in a crowded receivers room in Green Bay.
Round 12
Best Picks
Ladd McConkey has an opportunity to establish himself as WR1 in LA.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba went from a crowded receiver room at OSU to a similar situation with the Seahawks. Will he overtake Tyler Lockett as WR2 in Seattle this year?
Worst Picks
It’s easy to fall in love with Xavier Worthy’s record-setting speed, but he has a lot to prove.
Tyler Lockett had his worst season statistically since ’17. JSN’s continued emergence is cause for concern.
Round 13
Best Picks
As mentioned earlier, there are serious concerns about Nick Chubb’s return from injury. Jerome Ford held his own in relief last year and could have an extended run as the starter depending on how Chubb progresses.
The Steelers defense features the best edge rushing duo in the league. The offseason addition of Patrick Queen and a healthy Minkah Fitzpatrick has them stout on all levels.
Worst Picks
Gus Edwards and JK Dobbinsboth went from Baltimore to LA in the off-season, but the question of who gets more carries remains.
Jim Harbaugh has been busy since joining the Chargers. Justin Herbert has plenty of talent, but he also lost his top two receivers in the off-season.
Round 14
Best Picks
It’s a make or break year for the 12th overall pick in ‘22. Jameson Williams is set to take the next step.
Kyren William’s grip on the starting role may not be as tight as many think. Blake Corum is worth a roster spot this late.
Worst Picks
As mentioned earlier, the carry distribution between Gus Edwards and JK Dobbins remains a question.
Pat Freiermuth’s progression took a significant step back last year. Maybe the change at quarterback will get him back on track.
Round 15
Best Picks
Bengals running back Chase Brown flashed in his limited opportunities last year. Joe Mixon’s departure opens the door for more carries.
Is a change of scenery what was needed for former first round pick Jerry Jeudy to unlock his potential?
Worst Picks
Tyler Allgeier received a head-scratching amount of carries in comparison to teammate Bijan Robinson under coach Arthur Smith. Expect major regression with Raheem Morris in town.
Darnell Mooney hasn’t been relevant in fantasy football since ’21. Will his offseason move to Atlanta get him back on track?
Round 16
Best Picks
There is still hope that Trevor Lawrence can justify the Jaguars taking him #1 overall in ’21.
The Eagles defense is too talented to not be impactful in fantasy football.
Worst Picks
This is likely Deshaun Watson’s last opportunity in Cleveland to show that he’s still the same player he was in Houston.
Gabe Davis was a bit of a disappointment in Buffalo after he exploded for 201 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns in the Divisional Round against the Chiefs in ’21. Without Josh Allen as his quarterback it’s hard to envision things changing.
Value pick here. A week off and a good matchup for Levis has me optimistic.
Running Backs
Rachaad White vs. Saints – $7,900
White has scored double-digit fantasy points in 10 straight games and the Saints are 25th in the league in rushing defense.
James Cook vs. Patriots – $7,600
Despite a juicy matchup, Cook is affordable, likely because his poor performance last week. New OC Joe Brady has done wonders for the dynamic young RB.
Zamir White @ Colts – $6,100
Jacobs is currently doubtful for the game and White is coming off a 145 yard rushing game.
Wide Receivers
Stefon Diggs vs. Patriots – $7,600
In 8 career games against New England he has 7 TD’s and he has to bust out of this slump at some point.
Brandon Aiyuk @ Commanders – $7,500
Washington is 31st in passing defense and Purdy will be looking to make everyone forget about last week.
Zay Flowers vs. Dolphins – $6,300
He’s scored at least 17 fantasy points in 3 out of his last 4 games and is Lamar’s #1 option.
Tight Ends
Trey McBride @ Eagles – $6,800
Philadelphia is 27th in passing defense and McBride’s target share is massive.
Dalton Schultz vs. Titans – $6,200
11 targets last week and Stroud is back.
Isaiah Likely vs. Dolphins – $6,000
Despite a subpar matchup, he’s been a major factor in the Ravens offense the past three weeks.
Defense
Bills vs. Patriots – $4,900
The second priciest defense this week but the difference between the others is minimal. Plus you know they’ll be going all out for a playoff spot in front of their home crowd.
Colts vs. Raiders – $4,000
Las Vegas is the 29th ranked offense and the Colts had strung together some nice games before last week’s loss to Atlanta.
Raiders @ Colts – $3,900
4 defensive touchdowns in the past two weeks. Interim coach Antonio Pierce has this team inspired.
Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Christian McCaffery, Cooper Kupp, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Nick Chubb, Saquon Barkley or Davante Adams
Austin Ekeler’s usage over the past few years has me nervous about his injury risk.
I’m passing up Bijan Robinson this year despite his upside because I’m skeptical of how the Atlanta offense will perform.
2nd Round Targets
Derrick Henry, Stefon Diggs, CeeDee Lamb, A.J. Brown, or Garrett Wilson
If it’s a PPR league I’m probably taking the receivers listed over Henry, depending on how the draft is shaping up.
I love Garrett Wilson’s upside but for this year at least I’m going with the more proven, veteran receivers until I see the Jets offense with Aaron Rodgers in action.
Jonathan Taylor is still a top 5 overall talent in my opinion but until the trade request situation is resolved, he’s too difficult to project to draft this early.
3rd Round Targets
Travis Etienne Jr., Chris Olave, Jahmyr Gibbs, Najee Harris, or Deebo Samuel
I’m a big believer in Etienne’s development in addition to the entire Jacksonville offense.
Najee Harris was a flat out disappointment last year but I’m banking on quarterback Kenny Pickett improving and elevating the entire Pittsburgh offense with him, giving Harris more opportunities and more room to run.
4th Round Targets
Mark Andrews, Calvin Ridley, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, or Breece Hall
This is when I like to target an elite tight end or quarterback, again depending on how the draft is shaping up.
There are plenty of high upside quarterbacks available later in this year’s draft so unless Mahomes or Allen fall in my lap at the right spot, I’m waiting on the position until later.
Breece Hall will be a top 5 overall fantasy pick for years to come. What he showed last year was incredible but this year I’m a bit nervous with him coming off injury, the team signing Dalvin Cook, and what the Jets offense will look like.
I would definitely target Hall if I was in a dynasty league.
5th Round Targets
Jerry Jeudy, T.J. Hockenson, Amari Cooper, Kenneth Walker III, or D.J. Moore
I was a fan of receiver Jerry Jeudy coming out of Alabama and he put up a nice stat line last year despite quarterback Russell Wilson floundering. I don’t think there’s any way Wilson plays that poorly again and with head coach Sean Payton in town I think Jeudy finishes 2023 as a WR1.
D.J. Moore has always had the talent but many believe his quarterbacks have been holding him back. I’m buying into the hype surrounding Bears quarterback Justin Fields’ improvement this offseason and I’m intrigued as to what Moore can do this year.
6th Round Targets
Justin Fields, Justin Herbert, Alvin Kamara, Darren Waller, or James Connor
There’s a good chance that Fields is gone at this point in your draft but if he’s around I’m taking him without hesitation.
Coaching is holding back the Chargers and Justin Herbert. He has all the talent and weapons galore on offense. I think this is great value at this spot and Herbert reminds everyone he’s still among the league’s best at his position when it’s all said and done.
Alvin Kamara is a risky pick here because of his decline in production last year combined with his age and 3-game suspension. With that being said, I wouldn’t be shocked if he looked more like the Kamara from years prior with Derek Carr as his new quarterback.
One of my biggest sleepers this season; I think the move to New York does Darren Waller wonders and he finishes 2023 as a top-5 tight end.
7th Round Targets
James Cook, J.K. Dobbins, Brandon Aiyuk, Kyle Pitts, or Javonte Williams
I love J.K. Dobbins’ talent, but his health and the threat of Lamar Jackson and Gus Edwards eating into his touches have me wary.
Most people are steering clear of Kyle Pitts because of his failure to live up to expectations in his first two seasons in the league. He is too talented to stay down long and I’m gambling on a breakout year.
8th Round Targets
San Francisco 49ers’ Defense, George Pickens, A.J. Dillon, Michael Pittman Jr., D’Andre Swift, or Pat Freiermuth
This is about the earliest I ever take a team defense and only one of the top 3 projected ones at that. The 49er’s have done it a few years in a row now so they’re my top pick this season.
Steelers receiver George Pickens’ chemistry with Kenny Pickett is undeniable and I see a breakout season on the horizon.
D’Andre Smith never saw as many touches as we all anticipated in Detroit. Now in a crowded running back group in Philadelphia that risk still remains. But the upside is tantalizing so I’m taking a risk on him.
9th Round Targets
Philadelphia Eagles Team Defense, Buffalo Bills Team Defense, or Dallas Cowboys Team Defense
This is a good time to start thinking about your starting defense.
One of my favorite draft strategies is to take a solid backup defense early since I like to swap them in when my primary defense has a tough matchup.
10th Round Targets
Jamaal Williams, Khalil Herbert, Evan Engram, or New England Patriots Team Defense
If you haven’t drafted a tight end by this point in the draft, the drop off after Engram here is significant.
Barring a last minute signing, it looks like Jamaal Williams will fill in for Alvin Kamara for the first three games of the season while Kamara serves his suspension. He’ll return to a backup role after that but the added value during those first three weeks have me sold.
11th Round Targets
Jahan Dotson, Rashaad Penny, David Njoku, or Cole Kmet
Who knows how the running back position will play out in Philadelphia, but Rashaad Penny is capable of putting up RB1 numbers when healthy and given the opportunity.
If you waited to take a tight end and ended up drafting a fringe starter, I like to invest in a solid backup like David Njoku or Cole Kmet.
12th Round Targets
Tua Tagovailoa, Treylon Burks, Jordan Addison, or Zay Flowers
At this point in the draft I take my biggest risks, taking fliers on young players with upside.
I’m not big on drafting a backup quarterback, but if that’s your style, Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is being drafted as a backup but has starter talent and opportunity.
13th Round Targets
Justin Tucker, Ezekiel Elliott, Elijah Moore, or Elijah Mitchell
This is the earliest I would ever take a kicker and only for Justin Tucker, but he’s probably already gone at this point.
Running backs Ezekiel Elliott with the Patriots and Elijah Mitchell with the 49ers are solid depth pieces. They become valuable if Rhamondre Stevenson or Christian McCaffery get hurt, which is entirely possible if not likely at some point this season.
14th Round Targets
Evan McPherson, Daniel Carlson, Younghoe Koo, Tyler Bass, or Harrison Butker
This is a nice spot to take a top-tier kicker since most people wait until the final round.
15th Round Targets
Miami Dolphins Team Defense, Quentin Johnston, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Jeff Wilson Jr., or Jameson Williams
Lions receiver Jameson Williams is a luxury to keep on your bench for the first 6 weeks of the season due to his suspension but if your wide receivers are shaky, he’s an excellent draft and stash option.
Jeff Wilson Jr. is slated as the starter in Miami but rumor has it they’re interested in Jonathan Taylor after losing out on Dalvin Cook.
The new Big 3 in Miami broke out in a big way on Sunday with Tua Tagovailoa throwing for 469 yards and 6 touchdowns, Tyreek Hill catching 11 passes for 190 yards and two touchdowns, and Jaylen Waddle going for 11 and 171 with two touchdowns of his own.
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Lions receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown became the first player in NFL history to have 6 straight games of 8 or more receptions and a touchdown when he torched the Commanders for 9 catches for 116 yards with two touchdowns on Sunday. He also tacked on two runs for an additional 68 yards.
Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes followed up his 360 yard 5 touchdown masterpiece against the Cardinals in Week 1 with 235 yards and 2 touchdowns in the Thursday night win over the Chargers. With the departure of Tyreek Hill, any pass catcher not named Travis Kelce should stay on your bench as Mahomes continues to spread the targets around.
Buccaneers
Tampa Bay was already without receivers Chris Godwin and Julio Jones ahead of Sunday’s win over the Saints and will now be without Mike Evans in Week 3 after his suspension for the brawl against New Orleans. The Bucs added some insurance by signing free agent wide receiver Cole Beasley to their practice squad today.
Drops
Cole Kmet – TE Bears
0 catches on 2 targets for the season
Kadarius Toney – WR Giants
2 catches for 23 yards for the season
Skyy Moore – WR Chiefs
1 catch for 30 yards in a crowded KC receiver group
Adds
Evan Engram – TE Jaguars
11 catches through 2 weeks
Tyler Higbee – TE Rams
110 yards for 6th most at TE
Brian Robinson – RB Commanders
Eligible to return Week 5
Sell High
Michael Thomas – WR Saints
Can he keep up the pace? I don’t think so
David Montgomery – RB Bears
Bears offense looks dreadful and backup Khalil Herbert is a threat for carries
James Robinson – RB Jaguars
Solid start to the season but Etienne should get more touches as the season goes on
Buy Low
Kyle Pitts – TE Falcons
Way too talented to continue being ignored, look for ATL him more involved
Brandon Aiyuk – WR 49er’s
Jimmy Garoppolo’s return bodes well for Aiyuk
Travis Etienne Jr. – RB Jaguars
Effective when he gets touches and will continue to get more involved
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