The Chris Paul Effect

The Phoenix Suns shocked the NBA when they went undefeated, 8-0, in the NBA bubble last season. Despite failing to qualify for the playoffs, the season should be considered a success because the team was able to increase its win percentage by 23% after finishing last in the Western Conference the year before.

The improvement of superstar Devin Booker played a major role in the team’s improvement, but the addition of point guard, Ricky Rubio, shouldn’t be overlooked. Rubio brought an element of ball distribution that the Suns haven’t seen in a long time, maybe even since the days of Steve Nash.

The Suns continued their positive momentum this off-season when they acquired Chris Paul via trade. They moved on from Ricky Rubio in the process, but Chris Paul represents a significant upgrade. Let’s take a look at how:

Rubio and Paul’s statistics were surprisingly similar last season, with the exception of Paul’s higher scoring average and Rubio’s edge in assists. Rubio’s 8.8 assists per game to Paul’s 6.7 represents an abnormality when considering each player’s career averages. It’s for that purpose that we will look at each player’s averages over the last 5 seasons to get a better idea of what to expect moving forward.

Here is how the two compare over the last 5 seasons:

	Chris Paul	Ricky Rubio
Assists	8.4	7.58
DWS	2.8	2.5
DBPM	1.76	.62
PPG	17.88	12
3PM	1.98	1.04
TO’s	2.42	2.62
PER	23.64	16.06

Legend: DWS = Defensive Win Shares, DBPM = Defensive Box Plus/Minus, PPG = Points Per Game,     3PM = 3-Pointers Made Per Game, TO’s = Turnovers Per Game, PER = Player Efficiency Rating

A few of the biggest takeaways when comparing the two are the advantages held by Chris Paul in scoring, efficiency, and defense. The league average for PER is 15 so Suns fans should be excited about Paul’s impact in that category. PER essentially boils down a player’s contributions into a single statistic. Paul’s scoring should take some pressure off Devin Booker and his defense will help offset Booker’s negative DBPM rating to round out the backcourt for Phoenix.

The Suns appear to have the pieces in place to compete at a high-level for the foreseeable future. Hopefully their days in the basement of the Western Conference are behind them.

*Stats courtesy of basketball-reference.com

Fantasy Basketball December Update

Pick-Ups of the Month:

• Taurean Prince SF Atlanta Hawks:  Prince put up a career high 24 points against the Cavaliers on Tuesday night. That was the 8th time hes scored in double digits during his last 9 games. Prince is averaging over 30 minutes per game and would be a solid contributor of points and rebounds on any fantasy team.
• Caris LeVert PF,SG,SF Brooklyn Nets: During his last four games LeVert has been averaging close to 30 minutes played which indicates a stable spot in Brooklyn’s rotation. He does a great job getting steals and assists to go along with his scoring.
  

Grab N Stash:

• Zach LaVine PG Chicago Bulls: Word is that LaVine will make his Chicago debut in early January. Go ahead and pick him up before reports emerge of a concrete return date and everyone in your league wishes he was available.

Don’t Even Bother:

• Dirk Nowitzki PF,C Dallas Mavericks: Although the future Hall of Fame center is still registering decent numbers this year, his health and minutes greatly reduce his fantasy value. Don’t fall for the name recognition and look to add someone else instead.

Don’t Give Up:

• Willie Cauley-Stein C Sacramento Kings: Willie Trill played 30 minutes off the bench in his first game back from a three game absence. Ignore the fact that the Kings brought him off the bench, sooner or later he will be their starting center and the increase in minutes will lead to an increase in production. The big man out of Kentucky has the talent to make a difference this year.

Trade Targets:

• Thaddeus Young: SF,PF Indiana Pacers: If Victor Oladipo is now Batman in Indiana then Thaddeus Young is his Robin. The surprising Pacers are making noise in the Eastern Conference this year and its in no small part thanks to the play of Young. He’s a great source of scoring, steals, and rebounds so try to pry him away if hes not on your team.
• Lou Williams PG,SG Los Angeles Clippers: Lou Williams can score with the best of them. The injuries to Patrick Beverly and Blake Griffin have created a large void in scoring for the Clippers which Williams has taken it upon himself to fill. His scoring and assists numbers are about as consistent as they come, try to get this guy on your team.

A comparative analysis of the Cleveland Cavaliers pre and post trades

	Cavaliers Pre Trades	Cavaliers Post Trades
Record	19-16	7-4
Winning %	54%	64%
FG%	45.1%	45.9
3P made per game	8	10.3
3P%	34.5%	36.1%
FT made per game	19	17.9
FT%	76.2%	74.3%
REB	41.2	45.4
AST	22.5	19
TO	13.7	13.7
STL	7.1	7.6
BLK	4.1	3.9
PPG	100.6	105.5
+/-	+1.3	+3.7

Wednesday, January 28th
By: Sam Abood

CLEVELAND – On January 5th, the Cleveland Cavaliers sent Dion Waiters to the Oklahoma City Thunder as part of a three-team blockbuster trade which netted the Cavaliers shooting guards J.R. Smith and Iman Shumpert from the New York City Knicks, as well as a protected first round pick from Oklahoma City. New York received Alex Kirk, Lou Amundson, and a second round pick from Cleveland as well as Lance Thomas from the Thunder.

Two days later the Cavaliers received coveted center Timofey Mozgov from the Denver Nuggets in exchange for two first round draft picks which they acquired previously from Memphis and Oklahoma City.

As of January 28th, Cavaliers have played 11 games since their first new addition, J.R. Smith, made his debut on January 7th. They have posted a record of 7-4 since the trades as opposed to going 19-16 to open the season. Statistical trends begin to emerge after contrasting the team’s numbers before and after the trades.

In this article I will highlight those trends as well as providing the differences in production from the team’s previous starting shooting guard (Dion Waiters) and center (Anderson Varejao) compared to their replacements. Since Shumpert has only played 3 games with the team and has seen limited minutes since his return from injury, he will be excluded from player analysis.

Findings

+/- Rating
The Cavaliers have improved their points scored per game numbers verse their points allowed by 2.4 points per game during their 11 games since the trades. The Golden State Warriors currently sit atop the NBA with a +11.1 rating. Cleveland’s rating of +3.7 since the trades would place them at tenth in the league if they maintained those numbers all season.

The Cavaliers have posted a +2.5 rating when J.R. Smith has been on the court during his first 11 games with the team versus a -1.8 rating when shooting guard Dion Waiters played during his 33 games this season. The team has also enjoyed a +3.2 rating when center Timofey Mozgov has played in his first 10 games compared to a +.2 rating during center Anderson Varejao’s 26 games played.

Current starting shooting guard, J.R. Smith, represents a +4.3 rating over previous starter Dion Waiters and starting center, Timofey Mozgov, represents a +3 rating over Anderson Varejao. The two replacements combine for a +7.3 differential over the two players that they replaced.

Rebounds
Cleveland has averaged 4.2 more rebounds per game since the trades. The team began the season by averaging 41.2 per game compared to 45.4 per game since the trades.

Current starting center Timofey Mozgov has averaged 8.8 rebounds per game during his time with the team compared to Varejao’s 6.5 per game before his injury. Starting shooting guard, J.R. Smith, has averaged 3.2 rebounds per game compared to Dion Waiter’s 1.7 rebounds per game.

Mozgov represents a 2.3 rebounds per game increase over Varejao, and Smith has averaged 1.5 more than Waiters. The two new additions have combined for 3.8 more rebounds per game than the players who they replaced.

3 Pointers
The Cavaliers have made 2.3 more 3 pointers per game since their trades and have improved their 3 point shooting percentage by 1.6%.

A large part of the team’s current success in this department stems from replacing Waiter’s 25.6% shooting with Smith’s 37.4%. Smith’s 3 point percentage represents an 11.8% increase over Waiters. Smith is also averaging 3.1 3 pointers made per game as opposed to Waiter’s average of .7 made during his time with the Cavaliers this season.

Coincidentally, Smith’s 2.3 more 3 pointers made per game than previous starter Dion Waiters represents the same increased number as the entire team since the trades.

Assists
Cleveland’s relapse in assisting since the trades represents one of the few, and most significant decreases in statistics since February 7th. The Cavaliers began the season assisting at a rate of 22.5 per game versus 19 per game since the trades.

Smith and Mozgov have combined for -1.2 assists per game fewer than former starters Varejao and Waiters.
Varejao averaged 1.3 assists per game before his injury compared to Mozgov’s .4 assists per game during his time with the team. Waiters averaged 2.2 assists per game as opposed to Smith’s 1.9 per game.

Points scored per game
The Cavaliers have boasted a 4.9 points scored per game increase since their new players took the court. The team averaged 100.6 points per game before the trades, and 105.5 points after.

The Warriors currently lead the NBA with 110.9 points scored per game and Cleveland sits tenth in the league with an average of 101.7 points scored per game. If the Cavaliers maintained their 105.5 points per game average since the trades occurred, they would rank sixth in the NBA.

J.R. Smith is currently averaging 32.7 minutes per game and has contributed 14.3 points per game. Previous starter Dion Waiters averaged 23.8 minutes per game and scored 10.5 points per game during his time in Cleveland this year. Mozgov has played an average of 26.7 minutes per game and has posted an average of 9.4 points per game. Previous starting center, Anderson Varejao, averaged 24.4 minutes per game and 9.8 points scored per game.

Smith has averaged 3.8 more points per game than Waiters during his 8.9 more minutes per game and Mozgov has averaged -.4 points per game during his 2.3 more minutes per game than Varejao.

	Dion Waiters	J.R. Smith
Games played	33	11
MPG	23.8	32.7
FG made per game	4.2	5.2
FG%	40.4%	39.9%
FT made per game	1.4	.8
FT%	78.3%	81.8%
3P made per game	.7	3.1
3P%	25.6%	37.4%
REB	1.7	3.2
AST	2.2	1.9
TO	1.5	1.3
STL	1.3	1.5
PPG	10.5	14.3
+/-	-1.8	+2.5

	Anderson Varejao	Timofey Mozgov
Games played	26	10
MPG	24.4	26.7
FG made per game	4.3	3.8
FG%	55.5%	54.3%
FT made per game	1.3	1.8
FT%	73.3%	72%
OREB	2.2	3.4
REB	6.5	8.8
AST	1.3	.4
TO	1.3	1.2
STL	.7	.5
BLK	.6	1.2
PPG	9.8	9.4
+/-	+.2	+3.2

All statistics courtesy of NBA.com

Cleveland Cavaliers without Kyrie Irving

Fourteen games into the NBA season and the Cleveland Cavaliers have a record of 3-14. Their record is a bit misleading, as the Cavs have been competitive in most of their games. They have lost a number of heart breakers late in the fourth quarter. Of their five late game losses, three were against probable playoff teams (Milwaukee, Miami, and Memphis). Over their last three games the Cavaliers entered the fourth quarter tied or leading only to come up short.

Starting point guard Kyrie Irving has missed the last four games due to a fractured finger. Is it a coincidence that the Cavaliers have lost these last three games without Irving? Lets take a closer look.

According to ESPN Research, Irving led the league last year in usage during clutch situations. His usage rate of 47.2% of his team’s possessions during clutch situations was 19.3% higher than his usage rate for the rest of the game. Here’s the astonishing part, of the top five players in usage rating during clutch situations, Kyrie was the only one to boast a higher field goal percentage than in non-clutch situations.

So what can we make of all these statistics? Well, when the game is on the line, Irving will have the ball in his hands. Also, he is not affected by pressure; in fact, he thrives on it, as evidenced by his field goal percentage.

A strong argument can be made that Irving is sorely missed by his coach and teammates. Perhaps a few of those games may have ended differently with Irving on the court. For Cleveland fans, Irving’s finger can’t heal soon enough

2012 Eastern Conference Central Division Off-Season Update

Central Division champions of a year ago, the Chicago Bulls, did little to improve their team during the offseason. As point guard Derrick Rose continues to work his way back from a devastating ACL tear, the team must rely on their other four starters not wearing #1 on their jerseys. The Bulls lost Omer Asik, Ronnie Brewer, Kyle Korver, and C.J. Watson to free agency. The team faces an uphill battle playing without 2010 MVP Derrick Rose.

The Indiana Pacers lost to the Boston Celtics in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals. After scratching and clawing for a shot at the title, the Pacers came up just short. Previous General Manager Larry Bird will be missed, but the team found an adequate replacement in Donnie Walsh.

The Portland Trailblazers tried to snatch up Indiana’s center Roy Hibbert to a four-year, $58 million deal. The Pacers matched the offer and retained their big man out of Georgetown. The team surprisingly traded point guard Darren Collison to the Dallas Mavericks for center Ian Mahinmi. They hope Mahinmi can bolster their interior defense.

Milwaukee didn’t make too many adjustments to their roster this offseason. The team will continue to forge a new identity after their blockbuster trade midseason in 2011. The Bucks traded center Andrew Bogut to the Golden State Warriors for shooting guard Monta Ellis and small forward Epke Udoh. Milwaukee re-signed power forward Ersan Ilyasova. The team has faith in the combination of Ilyasova, standout point guard Brandon Jennings, and their other young players.

The Detroit Piston’s major acquisition this summer came on draft day. Detroit took center Andre Drummond out of Connecticut with the ninth overall selection. Drummond is one of the most physically gifted big men to come out the draft since Dwight Howard, but former coaches and scouts question his work ethic. If the young center can produce, he would create a respectable duo with Detroit’s starting center, Craig Monroe.

The Central Division in the Eastern Conference boasts some of the most dynamic young talent in the league. Point guards Kyrie Irving, Derrick Rose, and Brandon Jennings all have the ability to take control in a game. Hope is high in Cleveland as training camp begins. A once so distant playoff birth suddenly seems within grasp. Kyrie Irving believes the time has come.

“I have high hopes for us,” said Irving. “Obviously our No. 1 goal is to make the playoffs this year and were definitely going to attain that as long as we continue to get better and as long as we compete every single night.”

Cleveland Cavaliers 2012 Training Camp Position Battles

Aside from Kyrie Irving, there remains much uncertainty regarding the point guard position.

During the offseason the Cavaliers traded point guard D.J. Kennedy to the Memphis Grizzlies for point guard Jeremy Pargo, a second-round draft pick in 2014, and cash considerations. Free-agent Jonny Flynn was brought in during the offseason for workouts, but never signed with the team. Look for Pargo, Donald Sloan, and Justin Holliday to compete for the privilege to back up Irving.

Coach Scott has yet to name a starting shooting guard, and most predict that either rookie Dion Waiters, or C.J. Miles will claim the position. Kelenna Azubuike and Daniel Gibson figure to challenge for the remaining minutes.

The small forward position seems to be up for grabs with the main candidates being Alonzo Gee, C.J. Miles, and Omri Casspi. Casspi and Gee both started at the position for the Cavaliers last year, but it is evident that Gee has the upper hand after having the better season of the two.

The Cavaliers contain their most depth at the power forward position. Tristan Thompson will get his minutes. Look for Samardo Samuels, Jon Leur, and Michael Eric to compete for the remaining playing time.

Samuels has pushed himself this offseason by dropping 20 pounds and lowering his body fat from 15 percent to 6.5 percent. Expect the slim new Samuels to establish himself as a prominent role player for the team this season.

The Cavaliers learned the importance of having a capable backup center after Varejao went down last year. The team unsuccessfully attempted to use Semih Erden, who is no longer a Cavalier, to fill the gap. After the Erden experiment ran its course, they found a suitable solution by playing Thompson at the position.

The team has significantly upgraded since then with the addition of Tyler Zeller, the No. 17 overall pick in the 2012 draft out of the University of North Carolina. The former Tarheel runs the floor as well as any big man around and can stretch the court with his jump shot.

Cleveland Cavalier’s 2012 Off-Season Update

Player Updates

Fresh off of one of the greatest rookie seasons in recent history, Kyrie Irving is looking to pick up right where he left off this upcoming season.

Irving commanded the attention of veteran players and coaches this summer while he practiced with the USA Olympic squad.

“Kyrie always impresses me,” said USA Basketball coach Mike Krzyzewski in an interview this summer. “This week, he’s been who I think he is, which is one of the top guards anywhere.”

“For me, Kyrie Irving has definitely stood out more than anyone,” LeBron James, the Cavalier’s former number one overall selection in ’03, told CBSSports.com this summer. “He’s a great talent. I see him in a couple years being one of the best point guards that we have in this league. He has all the abilities that all the great point guards have in our league. Ball-handling, quickness, shooting ability, his mind is really smart too,” stated James.

Irving’s summer was cut short due to a fractured hand sustained after he slapped a padded wall in frustration during practice. The injury sidelined him for the NBA Summer League, which would have provided an opportunity to develop chemistry with his two new teammates, Dion Waiters and Tyler Zeller.

Irving has since recovered, and is expected to participate in training camp without any setbacks.

Of the players who did participate in the summer league, first round selection, Dion Waiters, did little to reaffirm Cleveland fans that he was the best possible option when the Cavaliers drafted him at number four overall. Waiters shot just 30% from the field and appeared sluggish.

“Dion knew he was out of shape,” said General Manager Chris Grant. “When we talked to him about it, he agreed that he needed to get to work. He didn’t make any excuses, he didn’t run from it.”

Fellow teammates warned Waiters about the intensity of coach Byron Scott’s training camps. He has taken this advice and run with it, literally. Waiters will report to camp ten pounds lighter than he was this summer.

Swingman C.J. Miles, the Cavalier’s most significant offseason signing, will provide some much needed depth on the roster. Miles plays both the shooting guard and small forward positions. Utah fans had high hopes for Miles after the Jazz invested a second round pick on him back in 2005. Coach Byron Scott believes he can bring out the best in Miles.

“I just thought he has so much left in him basketball-wise and it’s really untapped,” said coach Scott said after Miles signed with the team. “There are so many things he can do on a basketball court. I thought he’d be a great fit for us.”

Power forward Tristan Thompson looks to build upon a promising rookie campaign. Thompson started 25 games last year at center due to the injury of incumbent starter, Anderson Varejao.

Thompson will enter training camp as the favorite to secure the starting power forward position vacated by Antawn Jamison.

Center Anderson Varejao finds himself in a similar situation to years prior. He will return as the starter, yet his name continues to permeate throughout the trading block. His hustle and “all-out” style of play has translated into a number of injuries over the past few seasons.

The most recent wrist injury caused him to miss the final 41 games last season. Varejao recently said that he will not alter his approach to the game in order to avoid injuries.

“It’s my goal to stay healthy this year,” Varejao said. “That’s the biggest thing this year. There’s nothing you can do to prevent it. I’m not going to change anything. I’m going to keep playing the same way.”

Small forward Alonzo Gee signed a three-year deal to stay in Cleveland this offseason. The Cavaliers hope Gee can continue to improve after averaging a career-high 29.0 minutes per game last season.

The Cavaliers acquired guard Kelenna Azubuike along with rookie center Tyler Zeller on a draft day trade that sent Cleveland’s #24, #33, and #34 selections to Dallas. Azubuike has only played in twelve games since 2009 due to a torn left patella tendon.

The Cavaliers lost Anthony Parker and his .404 career three-point shooting percentage to retirement during the offseason. The team is hoping that Azubuike can stay healthy and help fill the void.