The long wait is finally over as spring training baseball has begun in Arizona and Florida.
This year is different than most with a few marquee free-agents remaining unsigned. For our purposes, there aren’t many unsigned players who will make a significant impact in fantasy baseball this year so its safe to begin projecting how this season will go.
Now that draft rooms are open lets begin identifying some potential sleepers, busts, breakout candidates and more.
Sleepers
For those that are unfamiliar a ‘sleeper’ is a player who many think will outperform their preseason projections. Naturally, they are the most fun to speculate so lets start here.
Felipe Rivero – Closer Pittsburgh Pirates
The 26 year-old left hander burst onto the scene last year after filling in for the ineffective Tony Watson. Rivero boasted a 1.67 ERA which placed him in the top ten among relievers. With little apparent competition to his closer role, expect him to dominate again this year.
Eddie Rosario – Outfielder Minnesota Twins
Rosario finished strong last season by driving in 52 runs during the Twins last 70 games. Entering his fourth season in the league Rosario provides a solid source of batting average, runs scored, home runs, and runs batted in for fantasy managers. Due to his age, the promise of improvement should lead to fantasy managers snatching him up in mid-rounds.
Didi Gregorius – Shortstop New York Yankees
It sounds weird calling Gregorius a sleeper when he has increased his average, home run, RBI, and runs scored total every year since being traded to the Yankees. But thats the catch right there. He gets lost amongst all the budding stars and home run crushing players in New York. Let all your opponents reach early for guys like Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton while you sit back and secure a solid, consistent talent in Gregorius during the middle rounds.
Busts
For our purposes today we will define a ‘bust’ as a player being drafted too high. That is not to say they aren’t worth a roster spot, but be weary of reaching too high for these players.
Bryce Harper – Outfielder Washington Nationals
According to ESPN Harper is being selected 5th overall in drafts. That places him ahead of guys like Paul Goldschmidt, Giancarlo Stanton, and Charlie Blackmon. Most people realize that Harper has MVP caliber talent, but its his availability due to injury which gives me pause. Harper has missed approximately 20 percent of the Nationals games since entering the league in 2012. I prefer to select high risk/high reward players later in the draft and focus on consistency with my first few selections.
Gary Sanchez – Catcher New York Yankees
Its tough to place Sanchez in this category. He has been nothing but an amazing source of power and average in todays depleted catcher position. Its really a three man race at catcher between Sanchez, Posey, and Contreras with everyone else projected to put up similar numbers to one another. Sanchez is being selected in the early 3rd round of most drafts which is too high in my opinion. Since the difference between all other catchers is so negligible I prefer to wait until the later rounds to select a catcher.
Gerrit Cole – Starting Pitcher Pittsburgh Pirates
Cole failed to live up to his lofty expectations in Pittsburgh so he was traded to the defending champion Astros this off-season. Last season was the second time he reached the 200 innings pitched mark during his 5 year career and the results were troubling. Not only did he post a career-low 4.26 ERA, he also surrendered 31 home runs. Now facing the switch from the National League to the American, the risks have me steering clear of Cole in 2018.
Break-Out Candidates
Luis Castillo – Starting Pitcher Cincinnati Reds
The 25 year-old right hander out of the Dominican Republic flashed some serious talent during his rookie campaign last year. His strength lies in his strikeout and ground-ball ability. His 3.12 ERA was equally impressive. An expectation of an innings-pitched increase has me high on Castillo for 2018.
Archie Bradley – Relief Pitcher Arizona Diamondbacks
After being drafted seventh overall by the Diamondbacks in 2011, Bradley never lived up to his expectations. The switch to the bullpen worked wonders last year and he finished with an ERA of 1.73. Although he hasn’t been named the closer for the Diamondbacks at this point, he is the best option on the team. He has the talent and velocity to excel at the position so take a flier on him late in hopes that he secures that role.
Adam Eaton – Outfielder Washington Nationals
The Nationals surrendered some legitimate talent to acquire Eaton from the White Sox two years ago. That should tell you that they are bullish on his potential. Before tearing his ACL and going down for the season last year Eaton was 3rd in the majors in runs scored (24) during 23 games for the Nationals while batting lead-off. Reports say he is healthy now and figures to be a prominent player atop the high-octane Nationals lineup. Wait until the mid-rounds and select him with confidence.
Need some Love
For this segment I will identify a few players who should be ranked slightly higher than their current projections.
Jacob DeGrom – Starting Pitcher New York Mets
DeGrom put it all together in his fourth year in the bigs last season. He pitched over 200 innings, which is a testament to his durability, and finished with excellent strike out numbers as well as a 3.53 ERA. The attention usually goes to Noah Syndergaard thanks to his electric fastball when people consider the Mets starting rotation. I, however, am more confident selecting DeGrom ahead of Thor due to Syndergaard’s violent delivery and injury-risk.
Kyle Seager – Third Base Seattle Mariners
Like many players last season Seager made an adjustment in his swing to create more loft. The result was an increase and power and a decrease in batting average. Seager has been an incredibly reliable batter with the Mariners during his seven year career and his projections have taken a hit due to the regression in batting average. I expect a bounce-back year from Seager and I would select him confidently in the mid to later rounds.
Jason Kipnis – Second Base Cleveland Indians
Injuries and a position switch really hurt Kipnis last year. When healthy he has All-Star potential. Manager Terry Francona has announced that Kipnis will return to his natural position at second base and likely bat second for an impressive Indians lineup. Kipnis is an afterthought in most drafts and is even going undrafted in many leagues. Save one of your last selections in the draft this year to take a flier on him.
StraightSports 